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to take the delayed effect of balance sheet reduction conducted earlier into its consideration of rate cuts. The current phase-out of balanc
上海会所e sheet reduction already has some easing effect, and only after the balance sheet reduction ends in September, can its impact become clearer.
By incorporating that impact into consideration, the Fed can draw up a better rate cut plan that maximizes effects of the policy mix.上海会所
Thirdly, the market may have overestimated how much the Fed will cut the rates. There may be no more than three rate cuts by the end of 2020.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard – the major advocate of this
round of rate cut – has suggested the use of the modern-day Taylor rule, which fairly well explains th上海会所
e Fed’s interest rate decisions. Even based on this model adopted by dovish Fed officials, we found that the degree of rate cuts may be weaker than m
上海会所arket expectation for quite some time going forward: at most one cut by the end of this year and likely two or three cuts by the end of 2020.
By contrast, before the June FOMC meeting, the market expected a higher-than-85-percent chance of more than one rate cut by the
end of this year as well as an about 60-percent chance of more than three cuts by the end of 2020, according to Bloomberg data.上海会所品茶微信
In conclusion, we think as economic downside pressure gradually emerges, the Fed will have to kick off the rate cut cycle. But the rate cut si上海会所品茶微信
gnal, timing and degree may not measure up to the market expectation. Therefore, two future developments appear possible:
First, investor sentiment can reverse drastically if the Fed’s action fails to meet market expec上海会所品茶微信
tation. Considering the market has fully priced in the unrealistic expectation of rate cuts sinc
e early June, any reversal of expectation can lead to short-term fluctuations of key price signals such as the US Treasury yield cu
rve, the US Dollar Index, and the gold price, which may pose extensive spillover shocks to asset portfolios.
Second, the long-term trend of rate cuts will continue even if the market expectation reverses. In the long
run, the Fed is expected to proceed with rate cuts in a fairly slow and smooth way. This will enlarge the monetary policy room of ot
her major economies and expedite the shift toward an easing global monetary environment, which may in turn lift the sen
timent of global stock markets and ease any currency risk of emerging markets gradually.
Cheng Shi is the managing director, head of research and chief economist of ICBC Interna
tional Holdings Ltd.Qian Zhijun is a senior economist of ICBC International Holdings Ltd.